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Poverty traps and affluence shields

Working Paper 2021-576


I propose analysing the dynamics of income positions using dynamic panel ordered probit models. I disentangle, simultaneously, the roles of state dependence and heterogeneity (observed and non-observed) in explaining income position persistence, such as poverty persistence and affluence persistence. I apply my approach to Chile exploiting longitudinal data from the P-CASEN 2006–2009. First, I find that income position mobility at the bottom and the top of the income distribution is much higher than the expected, showing signs of high economic insecurity. Second, the observable individual characteristics have a much stronger impact than true state dependence to explain individuals’ current income position in the income distribution extremes.

Authors: JoaquΓ­n Prieto.

Keywords: Longitudinal data; poverty persistence; affluence persistence; income mobility; Chile; Latin America.
JEL: D31, D63, I32